Sunday, 22 February 2015

STOCK-MARKET TRADERS--“A WINNING EDGE” PSYCHOLOGY

STOCK-MARKET TRADERS--
DEVELOP “A WINNING EDGE” PSYCHOLOGY
Stock Trading demands fundamental understanding of the stock valuations, future prospects and never the less stock behaviour relates to news and corporate developments. Stock market Traders shall have the necessary financial back-up, right associations to understand the movements with precision & care, more over traders shall develop psychologically matured, emotionally balanced, analytically strong mind and disciplined in judgement which we often find HARD with the amateur traders. 
Afresh blood of INVESTOR community come to markets on regular basis, and many novice investors get converted to Day-Traders for early-quick bucks, more than that a KICK and Excitement. The amateur Traders, think trading is an easy job, get trapped in the psychological compulsive state, loose control of rational thinking and suffer losses due to lack of understanding about the market operations. The stock-market play is always a two way game. But most traders believe just a BUY&SELL.  These Traders seldom recognise the basic fact that every BUY from their end is corroborated by some others SELL side position and vice-versa. 
Most of the times, the Day traders believe as if they are making a winning trade as small profits are reflected in their positions due to the market fluctuations. In fact, the day traders fail to understand the actual Trend, because the small moves are perceived as TREND and more positions built over that, as if right. The move to eliminate day traders/jobs shall never be taken as granted as TREND, whereas seasoned market makers/market operators generate such a false swing move to eliminate the amateur weak traders in the opposite direction of the main trend to see the stop-loss orders get triggered. Trends sustain for longer period usually than the fluctuations. The fluctuations of PUSH & PULL due to the urge to garner VOLUME, market operators generate a minor move in the direction of TREND or against. This happens normally when stocks in a Trading Zone, with well-defined boundaries. 
No doubt, traders are the volume creators, provide DEPTH to the markets. The amateur traders who are hyper active in their decision are making process seldom find time to cross check the rationale, enters the market to create a position on the buy side or on the sell side, and get struck to that thought process. These Traders tend to behave erratically, because initiated some positions, don’t hesitate to add more even if the position is at loss, and presume that averaging can turn the table. The similar behavioural pattern compels these traders to go for wild coverings that force to accept huge losses. Many a times, hear the complaining sympathy seeking statements like “when my positions are cleared/stoploss hit, the markets took a U-turn”. 
Day Traders enjoy the ecstasy, get involved in the PROFIT-LOSS drama of excitement that keeps tense mental state, and fail to evaluate the strength of winning trades. Similarly when losing. Either, Greed for Profits and FEAR of Loss generate impulsive heartbeat, turbulent emotions encircle the traders mind, generate confusion while making a judicious decision making, and end up in frustration.
Traders has to accept the very fact that, they have to understand the behaviour of the stock market moves but not the Markets. A seasoned trader can easily identify these moves and their nature strength, can generate good profits, whereas the amateurs be they Traders or Investors, always emotionally take a decision and challenges themselves to prove their ability to take right decisions,  prefers to Buy at the Top edge and Sell at the Bottom. The problems with these Compulsive, emotionally imbalanced traders is that they DEMAND the TREND, always look at the markets with an influenced mind set, thinking as if they are insurmountable and a pre-defined blind approach. Here, I am suggesting to understand the difference between a PLANNED & STRATEGIC APPROACH and a pre-determined adamant approach. 

In my next article, will try to analyse the PILLARS of Stock Markets…

Friday, 20 February 2015

EICHER MOTORS...ENFIELD SUCCESS...FULLY...!!!

Enfield & recovery in CVs to drive profit

Street willing to give premium valuations, based on strong catalysts such as robust volumes
Malini Bhupta  |  Mumbai  
 Last Updated at 22:26 IST
Investors tend to be forgiving towards an occasional miss in quarterly performance if the company has a strong franchise. This same is true for Eicher Motors, which disappointed in the December 2014 quarter by reporting below-consensus margins and net profit. The market remains optimistic on the stock, thanks to the strong franchise of Royal Enfield. In the December quarter, the firm’s net profit grew 60 per cent year-on-year to Rs 154 crore but on a sequential basis, it fell seven per cent. The performance is below the Street's estimates.

The reason for the disappointment was largely higher marketing and research & development expenses, which should normalise. The consolidated operating margin improved 330 basis points to 13.2 per cent. The standalone margin at 23.6 per cent disappointed the Street as it was down 140 points sequentially. Analysts believe the company has chosen to front-load a lot of expenses during the quarter but the numbers would improve.
There are several triggers  pushing analysts to increase the potential target price of the stock in 2015. For starters, consumers are clearly showing a shift towards leisure motorcycles and is not showing any sign of a volume slowdown. Though the leisure motorcycle category currently accounts for only two per cent of the total motorcycles sold in India, it is growing very fast. Nomura is projecting a 43 per cent volume CAGR in Royal Enfield volumes over FY14-17, led by an order backlog of five months and expansion into new tier-2 and tier-3 cites. Besides, the company is looking at capacity addition by mid-2015 and 2016, which would take overall capacity up by 60,000 units a month. JM Financial says the company is targeting volumes of 450,000 in 2015.

With new capacity in place, the company will address demand creation and boosting volumes. Eicher is looking at launching a new retail format across all Royal Enfield outlets and increasing number of dealerships to 500 by the end of 2015. The company is also setting up two R&D centres - in Chennai and the UK - to extend the product range.

ICICI Securities expects the company to track Harley Davidson's high growth phase in the coming years. Other than Royal Enfield, the company is also poised to capitalise on the recovery in commercial vehicles through the joint venture with Volvo. The company has not only extended the product range in the light and medium segment, but also in the heavy segment. The Volvo Eicher CV has increased market share in medium and heavy commercial vehicles segment to 12 per cent in FY14 from nine per cent in FY09.

Based on strong catalysts such as strong volumes for Royal Enfield and margin recovery in VE Commercial Vehicles, Nomura has arrived at a target price of Rs 19,915 a share, indicating a 22 per cent upside.

http://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/eicher-motors-strong-demand-for-royal-enfield-recovery-in-cvs-to-drive-profit-115022001029_1.html

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