Friday, 13 January 2017

TRADING DISORDERS...

TRADING AS A PROFESSION:

Professional experts consider "Day Trading" is an effective tool to make money on the volatility day but amateur retail investors get caught on the wrong foot due to emotional imbalance and lack of understanding of the "Game Plan" involved.

The Online Trading opened many windows of opportunities to retail investors. Many traders prefer Day trading in stock markets as a profession because of the underlying opportunity to make money is huge. The online screens exhibit the trades with rise and fall of the prices in ticker and the colors that stimulate emotions to Buy or Sell instantly to grab the opportunity. The emotional "Greed and Fear" attached to the position when built, generate anxiety and turbulence in the mind and get confused to take right decisions at the right time.

COMMON TRADING DISORDERS:

The Institutional and professional investors wait for the right time to go for shopping in stock markets whose investment research enhances better decision-making process with RIGHT perspective in STOCKS that can do well in future, improve their balance sheets at revenue front & profits part and market capitalization. The Investment decisions in stock markets considered both on Scientific research and Art part is recognizing the “TIME to INVEST”. They have the holding capacity as well loss-bearing capacity and may sometimes write off the loss and search afresh in other stocks.

RETAIL TRADER CHALLENGES:

I)Revenge Trading:

Revenge Trading is a very common practice and done to make money from that counter/scrip. The force of revenge gets generated in the mind as a consequence to the loss incurred due to hasty decisions made in the market volatility. The trader gets emotional rage to the foolish position made and a humiliating failure to enjoy profits triggers retaliation. Many losers as traders do trade with induced insults met and previous wounds stored, strike back with vengeance, also addicted to trade with vigor to prove that they are right and worthy.

The traumatic losing deals are painful and hard to digest. The failure to take right decision bug the mind, pressure build beneath the layers over a period of time. The frustrated mind call for a revenge and retaliation to cover losses from that stock triggers Revenge Trading (study the “Rouge Trader”, a true story of Nick Leeson).

The human Psychology Research Institutes state that the pre-frontal cortex the amygdala responsible for emotional reactions controls the decisions that the trader makes when encountered with an emotional reaction and also regulates the anxiety that shoots up once substantial positions are taken up.

II)Coercive Trading:

Coercive Trader with animal instincts, rule the mind and heart with EGO-centric approach become blind to accept reality, do trade with little reasoning. These traders ignore the warnings, think little on what is being done at the trading, blindly build positions and their ultimate consequences are well known to many.

Most of the times, many traders who lost their control over their positions “pray for the wish” to happen and keep on buying when the price is falling and keep on selling when the prices are rising with coercive nature and argumentative mind. Any size of position against the major trend is a drop in the ocean and simply trying to demand the ticker to do the opposite never happens, seldom prayers get respected those who ignored “The Reality”. This kind of approach even ruined Jesse Livermore (the greatest trader, read the book “ The Reminiscences of a Stock Operator”)

Emotional Compulsive Trading:

Stock trading is a dangerous game for Traders with high emotional attitude get attracted to the magic of Ticker, can become a prey to the market operators. Emotionally disturbed trader lack the situational judgmental mindset, is a Noise Trader (the term first used by Fisher Black in 1986) who is also known a Idiot Trader whose decisions to buy and sell are irrational, confusing, erratic and become a compulsive trader to keep on punching BUY or SELL, doesn’t consider the direction but involves in push and pull off the volume into the system. Needless to mention the results of these traders, may not survive in trading for a long time.

UNDERSTAND GREED AND FEAR:

Professional/seasoned traders get the gut feel, place entry and exit points with a well-defined plan in tune with markets movements. The small-time retail players make their decisions based on some advice, find difficult to deal deep-rooted greed to make instant money in the volatility and fear of further loss influence their decisions but not the rationale, end up winding the capital base. These traders get success less than 5 percent but more than 90% get addicted, continue to create problems to their accounts.

Catch a ROPE:

Result Oriented Planned Efforts-ROPE for better returns as a principle for investing, a well-thought strategy. Market participants unanimously agree that TIMING the bottoms and highs in Stock-Market, a very difficult task anybody can ever achieve. So Institutional investors find their Buying Zones and Selling Zones, instead merely focus on exact right Bottom to BUY and Right High to SELL, whereas retail investors get tempted to CATCH the opposite side for quick bucks, end up in losing wealth.

CONCLUSION: Stock trading is a big opportunity to make money. By the way, understand trading disorders, risks, traps and emotions involved to manage success in stock markets.

A planned approach helps to garner the opportunity and wealth can be created as well. 

Friday, 2 December 2016

DEFENCE ORDERS WORTH 2.5 TRILLION!

Manohar Parrikar says orders worth Rs2.5 trillion placed for modernization of defence sector

Manohar Parrikar was speaking at the HT Leadership Summit on Friday. Photo: Ajay Aggarwal/HT

Defence minister Manohar Parrikar says defence budget is currently about 1.65% of GDP and he would like it to be 3% but it wouldn’t happen overnight

New Delhi: Defence minister Manohar Parrikar on Friday said that orders worth nearly Rs2.5 trillion have already been placed to modernize defence forces under his tenure and this figure would soon touch Rs3 trillion.
 Speaking at the Hindustan Times Leadership Summit, Parrikar said there was a backlog of defence orders worth Rs583,000 crore, some of them pending for over 10-12 years. 
 He said many of these are being cleared but he cannot order as per will as defence budgets are to be taken into consideration. Typically anything brought has costs spread over 5-7 years or more. 
 The military budget is currently about 1.65% of the gross domestic product and Parrikar said he would like it to be 3%, but he conceded it would not happen overnight. 
 India has become the world’s fourth largest spender on defence, following a 13.1% increase in its 2016-17 defence budget, according to US research firm IHS Inc. 
 India’s rise in the rankings from sixth position last year is a result of an increase in expenditure to $50.7 billion, combined with cuts to military spending by Russia and Saudi Arabia, where low oil prices have put considerable strain on their finances. 
 According to a report released by PricewaterhouseCoopers Pvt. Ltd, India ranks among the top 10 countries in the world in terms of its military expenditure and import of defence equipment—only 35% of defence equipment is manufactured in India, mainly by public sector units. 
  Parrikar said his target is to bring greater synergies and understanding between the armed forces and defence ministry over the next six months in matters related to procurement and what is required by the forces.
 The defence minister also said that the surgical strikes in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir by the Indian Army had introduced a "principle of uncertainty" in the minds of the adversary and did not rule out more such strikes. 
  “The surgical strikes have introduced a degree of uncertainty... obviously, uncertainty itself creates decision-making bottlenecks. You will never know them,” the defence minister said. “It was a continuous insult to be treated like this... Someone comes, hits us and we can’t do anything.”
 Asked if India could carry out more surgical strikes, Parrikar said the “principle of uncertainty” should be allowed to operate. “It will be beneficial to all of us.” 
 On an attack in Nagrota that left seven soldiers dead on Tuesday, Parrikar said it was obvious that “some sort of lethargy” had set in over a period of time and it was “painful to see soldiers die.” 
 "We have to thing out of the box," Parrikar said on how to secure our military installations from more terrorist attacks. He said help of agencies like DRDO was being taken. DRDO has been asked to look into various kinds of high tech fencing.
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http://www.livemint.com/Politics/EpJSaDBGYECi221Ul4OYqL/Manohar-Parrikar-says-orders-worth-Rs25-trillion-placed-for.html

Saturday, 27 February 2016

CONSTRUCTIVE INVESTMENT DECISIONS
 for 
MULTI-BAGGER RETURNS!! 
ACTUALLY, NOBODY EVER LIKES TO TRADE FOR A LOSS BUT SELDOM RECOGNIZE THE INHERENT THREAT INVOLVED & THE DAMAGE THAT MAY OCCUR IN TRADING!

TRADER PSYCHOLOGY & EGO GRATIFICATION: 

MOST TRADERS THINK, MANY VEHEMENTLY CLAIM THAT THEY ARE MORE SMART AND INTELLIGENT THAN THE REST. THIS BEHAVIOURAL ATTITUDE ELEVATES THEIR EGO AND ENCOURAGE TO GO FOR TRADING TO MAKE “HUGE MONEY” – UNEXPLORED!!!.

RETAIL TRADERS AS WEAK HANDS, STAY LOW WITH SPECIFIC INFORMATION GET TRAPPED DUE TO EMOTIONAL TRIGGERS TO GRAB "BUY LOW- AS OPPORTUNITY" SHALL TRY TO UNDERSTAND BROAD MARKET ACTION

ULTIMATELY, MOST GET TRAPPED IN THIS VICIOUS CYCLE OF LOSING PROPOSITION, THOUGH THEY UNDERSTAND ENTANGLED DIFFICULTIES ASSOCIATED BUT PSYCHOLOGICAL COMPULSIONS TO PROVE SMARTNESS TO EXTERNAL WORLD, INCLINE TO HOOK ON TO THE WHEEL! 

WIDESPREAD OPPORTUNITIES & TEMPTATIONS:

TRADERS GET EVERYDAY OPPORTUNITIES TO PARTICIPATE IN DIFFERENT INSTRUMENTS AS TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS WORTH BEING TRADED ON THE EXCHANGES ACROSS THE GLOBE THROUGH VARIETY OF INSTRUMENTS LIKE DEBT, CURRENCIES, EQUITY, GOLD, CRUDE OIL AND OTHER COMMODITIES etc.

THE TEMPTATION TO BUY AT LOW WHEN MARKETS START FALLING WITH AN ANTICIPATION TO BOUNCE AND SELL IN A TRENDING HIGH MARKETS WITH AN ANTICIPATION TO FALL, ADD TO THOSE MISTAKES ADOPT "AVERAGES" AS A STRATEGY SINKS TRADERS CONFIDENCE THERE BY WEALTH EROSION & EXTINGUISH!, EXPLORE & UNDERSTAND HOW DOES EVER MARKETS OFFER PROFITS TO EVERY TRADER?.

ADOPT INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: BUY GROWTH STOCKS

MARKETS FALL NOT BECAUSE TO FALL FOR A REASON BUT ALSO TO DUMP THE LAGGARDS AND SHIFT/CHURN FUND ALLOCATION TO EMERGING SUNRISE SECTORS AND TO CATCH GROWTH STOCKS AT THEIR BEST POSSIBLE LOWER RATES FOR FUTURE THUMPING RETURNS!.

THE FIIs, DIIs & OTHER INSTITUTIONS EMPLOY TAMS TO STUDY, DEVELOP RESEARCH REPORTS FOR A SPECIFIC COMPANY OR A SECTOR IN ADVANCE, TAKE A WELL INFORMED CALL WITH ADEQUATE PREPARATION. THEY “GO FOR A DUMP” OF THE PAST LAGGARDS DURING MARKET SELL OFFS. UNFORTUNATELY, RETAIL INVESTORS WHOSE ROTTEN MEMORY, STUCK WITH OUTDATED IDEAS TEND TO BUY THESE KICKED STOCKS, JUSTIFYING AS YESTER YEAR'S GOOD COMPANIES.
AFTER A PAINSTAKING WAITING OVER A PERIOD OF TIME MAY REALISE THAT THESE SCRIPS WERE SOLD DUE TO POOR FUTURE BUSINESS PROSPECTS TO PERFORM OR A CHANGE IN MACRO ECONOMIC COMPETITION, BUT BECOME TOO LATE AS THE PRICE SINKS TO ITS ABYSS…!!.

CONCLUSION:

HYPOTHETICALLY, ALL INVESTMENTS SHALL YIELD POSITIVE RETURNS BUT NEVER HAPPENS DUE POOR SELECTION!. SO, ALWAYS INVEST IN COMPANIES AS GROWTH STOCKS TO BECOME MULTI BAGGERS OVER NEXT 4-5 Yrs, WHOSE BUSINESS SCOPE IS LARGE, ASSOCIATED & EXPAND WITH BOOM IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY FOR ASSURED PROFITS TO EXCEL & LEAD IN FUTURE. 

RETAIL INVESTORS WHILE PARTICIPATE SHALL TAKE CONSTRUCTIVE INVESTMENT DECISIONS AND KEEP ON INVESTING AT REGULAR INTERVALS THAT BECOMES A "HAPPY INVESTING" BASED ON THE FUNDAMENTALS RATHER THAN MERE "TIPS OR A CHEAP SCRIP". 

WHEREAS TRADERS SHALL NEVER TRADE WITH FRUSTRATION OR VENGEANCE, ALSO WITH HIGH LEVERAGE, SHALL CONDUCT A SERIOUS STUDY OF SCRIP LEVELS TO PLAN THE TRADE & ADOPT A STRATEGY TO TRADE WITH CAUTION.

TRADERS SHALL NEVER CONVERT TRADE POSITION INTO INVESTMENT DECISIONS, ALSO NO HESITATION TO BOOK LOSS WHEN STOCK FAILED TO PERFORM IN THE ANTICIPATED DIRECTION. TRADERS SHALL DEVELOP SHREWDNESS TO SWITCH POSITIONS AS OPPORTUNITY ARISES IN THE BROAD MARKET DIRECTION...!!! 

Saturday, 20 February 2016

HIMADRI WILL DOUBLE IN A YEAR












Quarterly results in brief
(Rs crore)
Dec' 15Sep' 15Jun' 15Mar' 15Dec' 14
Sales305.51310.18275.92341.86326.95
Operating profit53.5035.9216.716.4729.01
Interest25.4230.3727.5016.2230.34
Gross profit25.961.83-14.19-10.90-0.19
EPS (Rs)0.15-0.25-0.52-0.41-0.25




Himadri Chemicals & Industries Ltd, the flagship of Himadri Group, is the largest manufacturer of coal tar pitch in India. The company was founded to develop, manufacture and market chemical products with a special emphasis on coal tar and its derivatives. They supply coal tar pitch to well-known domestic aluminium and graphite industry players like Nalco, Balco, Hindalco, HEG, Graphite India and international players like Dubal, AOG, Graftech and SGL. The company is a leader in the domestic market for the supply of coal tar pitch and other by-products with around 70 percent share of the market.

The company has five state-of-the-art coal tar distillation plants in India. The company has two plants in Howrah, West Bengal, one in Hooghly, West Bengal, one in Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh and one in Korba, Chhattisgarh. Himadri Chemicals & Industries Ltd was incorporated as a private limited company in July 1987. In November 1991, the company was converted into a public limited company. In the year 1996, the company developed a technology for producing impregnating pitch and in the year 1997, they completed the expansion and modernization of their Howrah and Visakhapatnam plant. In the year 1999, the company set up third state of art coal tar distillation plant at Howrah. In the year 2001, they formed the corrosion protection division and starts manufacturing coal tar based pipe coating product at Visakhapatnam. In the year 2002, they introduced Liquid Pitch, which are supplied to the consumers in specialized and dedicated tankers. In the year 2003, the company set up their fourth modernized coal tar distillation plant at Hooghly with capacity to produce 1,20,000 MT of Coal Tar Pitch per annum. During the year 2005-06, the company commissioned a by-product plant in Hooghly for the manufacture of value added products. They   also commissioned a pilot plant for the manufacture of advanced carbon material used in lithium ion batteries with in-house technology. 

The company expanded the production capacity of the coal tar pitch at Hooghly form 28700 MTPA to 63700 MTPA. The company commenced the supply of coal tar pitch to Dubai Aluminium co, manufacturer of the highest purity aluminium in the world. They also commenced a representative office in China. During the year 2006-07, the company incorporated a wholly owned subsidiary in Hong Kong to manage their customer presence and facilitate the acquisition strategy. They set up a plant at Korba in Chhattisgarh as a precursor. They commissioned two windmills, which can generate 2.50 MW wind energy in the Dhule district of Maharashtra. In the same year, the company completed the first phase of expansion at Mahistikry, West Bengal to manufacture naphthalene. Also, they installed a granulation unit used for cooling coal tar pitch from more than 300 degrees centigrade to atmospheric for onward conversion into solid pencil form. The company expanded the coal tar distillation capacity in Hooghly from 91000 MTPA to 170000 MTPA. During the year 2007-08, the company commissioned their melting plant in Korba plants to build dedicated melting facilities near major customers' plant to accelerate just-in-time delivery. 

The company has undertaken a project at Mahistikry in West Bengal for the manufacture of Carbon Black with an annual capacity of 50000 MT and a capitive power plant of 12 MW capacity based on waste heat gas through forward integration. In September 2008, the company through their wholly owned subsidiary company, Himadri Global Investment Ltd entered into a joint venture contract, with Chinese company to takeover existing coal tar distillation plant in Xiaoyi, Shanxi.
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http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-02-06/news/31030975_1_capacity-expansion-himadri-chemicals-tonne-capacity
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http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-07-01/news/29726284_1_organic-growth-capacity-expansion-expansion-plans

=====
THANKS TO BS, REDIFF,ICHARTS AND ET FOR THEIR INFO SUPPORT.....

Saturday, 13 February 2016

STOCK MARKETS CRASH....


NAGESWARA RAO BAMMIDI
CFO-MIHIR MOBILE SOLUTIONS, bnr789@gmail.com
HOW TO DEAL STOCK MARKETS- BRIGHT FUTURE AHEAD..!!
ALL MARKET PARTICIPANTS KNOW THAT THE PROFITS FROM STOCK MARKETS ARE THE DEALS MADE FOR A DIFFERENTIAL AMOUNT REALIZED FROMBUY & SELL or SELL & BUY...!!! 
FOR DECENT PROFITS "BUY LOW and SELL HIGH" - GLOBALLY ACCEPTED and WELL ACKNOWLEDGED ADAGE IN STOCK MARKETS ....
MANY EXPECT, GET THEMSELVES PREPARED BUT MOST RETAIL INVESTORS HATE BUT SURPRISES ARE VERY COMMON IN STOCK MARKETS. THE WELL INFORMED FOREIGN INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS, NETWORK ESTABLISHED INSTITUTIONS, SEASONED HNIs, OF-COURSE BACKED WITH DEEP POCKETS, TEND TO ACT PROMPTLY WITH RIGHT DECISIONS AND MANAGE  GLOBAL STOCK MARKET TRENDS WITH THEIR NETWORKS AND EXPERTISE! TO ENHANCE THE  SPROUTING EUPHORIA OR ENLARGE PANIC SITUATIONS TO CREATE MORE TURBULENCE AS THE CASE MAY BE, AND FINALLY MAKE PROFITS FROM THE MARKETS...!!, BUT HOW MANY RETAIL INVESTORS AND PARTICIPANTS GET THESE ADVANTAGES??..
FEAR & GREED RULES:
THE SERIOUS SELL OFF FROM HIGHS IS A GREAT CONCERN TO MANY RETAIL INVESTORS WHO TEND TO HAVE THE TEMPTATIONS TO CATCH THE SHOOTING STOCKS AT THE HIGHS WITH OUT FUNDAMENTAL VALUE AND PRAY FOR THEIR SUCCESS AS THE RISK IS HIGH. ALTHOUGH, KNOW THAT THE MARKETS WENT UP SUBSTANTIALLY BUT GREED EARN AND TO ACT SMART TEND TO BUY, WAIT FOR THE "OTHER FOOL"
COMMON MISTAKES: WHEN MARKETS TOOK A SERIOUS BEATING, AGAIN RETAIL INVESTORS WITH FEAR OF FURTHER LOSS TEND TO SELL AT THE BOTTOM WITH AN INTENTION TO CATCH THE STOCK AGAIN AT THE LOWER LEVEL, BUT FAIL TO GARNER THE OPPORTUNITY, AGAIN A SIMILAR MISTAKE AS THEY DID AT THE HIGH POINTS.
https://media.licdn.com/mpr/mpr/shrinknp_800_800/AAEAAQAAAAAAAAboAAAAJDQwOGNhYWNmLWI5YTQtNDQ0ZC1iYWFkLWE0YjRkZTI0NDc4Ng.png
JUST TECHNICALS:  STUDY THE SCENARIOS DEVELOPED OVER A PERIOD OF TIME...
FROM LOW TO HIGH, MADE A JOURNEY OF 4000 POINTS SINCE AUG-13,NFTY LIKELY TO GET SUPPORT AT 6500-6550 LEVELS. 
NIFTY TOOK A DECENT JOURNEY FROM 5100 LEVELS TO 9100 LEVELS IN TWO YEARS AND EVERY BODY MADE A WISH FOR FURTHER HIGHS WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION AT ANY LEVELS. THE NEW GOVT.  FORMATION TRIGGERED HIGH EXPECTATIONS, WERE SOLD TO RETAIL INVESTORS AND NOW EXPERTS SAY THAT NO MAGIC WAND AVAILABLE TO CHANGE THE ECONOMY IN A DAY OR TWO WHEN GLOBALLY WELL CONNECTED AND INTER DEPENDENT....
CONCLUSION: THE FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSTS/INVESTORS GRAB THESE KINDS OF SELLOFFS TO BUY AND HOLD FOR A REASONABLE TIME  AS THE VALUATIONS MATCH THEIR EARNING.
THOSE WHO STUDY THE FRACTALS, WAVES OR FIBONACCI CAN EASILY CALCULATE THE NEXT MOVE.....
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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-deal-stock-markets-bright-future-ahead-nageswara-rao-bammidi?trk=hp-feed-article-title-publish



Saturday, 28 November 2015

China big construction plans--$438 bn

China plans to invest $438 bn in railway construction in 5 yrs

China's railway construction has been on a fast track as annual investment surged by 11.3 per cent from 580 billion yuan in 2011 to 800 billion yuan in 2014.

By:  | Beijing | November 28, 2015 1:33 PM
China plans to invest a total of at least 2.8 trillion yuan (USD 438 billion) in railway construction during the 13th Five-Year Plan period (2016-2020) making it a stimulus to halt the slowdown of the economy.
National railway network will grow by more than 23,000 kms over the next five years, with intercity projects and ones in Midwest regions being priority, China’s Economic Information Daily reported.
China’s railway construction has been on a fast track as annual investment surged by 11.3 per cent from 580 billion yuan in 2011 to 800 billion yuan in 2014.
During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, China spent a combined 3.47 trillion yuan on newrails, exceeding the original target of 2.8 trillion yuan by far, according to the newspaper.
High-speed railway which covered about 16,000 kms in China still remains as one of the key infrastructure projects, according to the 13th Five-Year plans released by local governments.
President Xi Jinping has directed the officials to keep the GDP to be around 6.5 per cent in the 13th plan as the economy in the Q-3 slipped below the seven per cent for the first time since 2009 causing uncertainty at home and abroad.
China ruled out a major stimulus but has been announcing huge projects to keep up the investment driven growth.
Projects that are expected to be underway include lines from Yinchuan to Lanzhou, Baotou to Xi’an, Chongqing and Guiyang, Datong to Taiyuan and Zhanjiang, and Xiamen to Changshaand Chongqing.
Beijing plans to expand its suburb rail lines by 800 kilometers, and urban transits by 900 kilometers, according to 13th Five-Year Plan proposal, state-run China Daily reported.
The Belt and Road Initiative will also boost exports of high-speed rail technologies and related products, the report said, adding that China expects rail equipment sales to exceed 650 billion yuan by 2020.
http://www.financialexpress.com/article/economy/china-plans-to-invest-438-bn-in-railway-construction-in-5-yrs/171570/

Wednesday, 9 September 2015

BEWARE...USA MAY CRASH...!!!

PAUL B. FARRELL 

Opinion: 100% risk of a 50% stock crash if Donald Trump wins nomination

Published: Sept 5, 2015 8:43 a.m. ET
By

PAUL 

 COLUMNIST
“Who will get the Dreary Recovery Going?” taunts Mort Zuckerman in a Wall Street Journal op-ed. The head of U.S. News & World Report warns America that a recession is coming: “They occur about every eight years and America is ill-prepared to weather the one on the horizon.” Ill-equipped.
Yes, the clock is ticking, every 8 years. 2000. 2008. Next 2016, even with a President Trump.
Another great newsman, Bill O’Neill, publisher of Investors Business Daily, author of perennial best-seller “How To Make Money in Stocks,” agrees: Markets have peaked and crashed roughly every four years for the last century, with bigger crashes, long recessions, every eight years. And still most investors will be ill-prepared.
Sounds like a double-teamed confirmation of Jeremy Grantham’s famous BusinessInsider prediction for 2016: “Around the presidential election or soon after, the market bubble will burst, as bubbles always do, and will revert to its trend value, around half of its peak or worse.”
Get it? A mega crash is coming, dropping half off its peak, down below Dow 5,000. Not just another 1,000-point correction like last month. But a heart-stopping collapse coinciding with the 2016 elections ... then a long systemic recession ... probably lasting till the 2020 presidential election, maybe longer ... no matter who’s in the White House, Doanld Trump, Jeb Bush or Hillary Clinton.
Yes, recessions hit every eight years. The last was just about 8 years ago, warned Zuckerman with these facts: “The period since the Great Recession ended in 2009 has seen the weakest U.S. recovery since World War II,” Our aging bull is actually warning us ... recession dead ahead.
Why no “urgency from the White House,” no push to strengthen the U.S economy, avoid the coming recession? asks Zuckerman. Why? GOP candidates are worse, immature teenagers offering a “handful of Band-Aids.” Any leaders? Trump the egomaniac? God help us.
Next another disturbing Journal op-ed gets tossed into the mix: Dick Cheney is on the attack, sounding like fellow Republican Trump’s motto, “Make America Great Again.” Build a bigger Pentagon war machine, says the architect of the $5 trillion Iraq War fiasco. His latest rally cry: “Restoring American Exceptionalism.” Sorry folks, but the GOP’s relentless efforts to sabotage the White House the last six years (like 50 repetitive and futile House votes to repeal Obamacare) was the exact opposite, an “exceptional” failure of leadership.
The former vice president also quoted conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer: We’re at a “hinge point in history.” And former New York Times war correspondent Chris Hedges one-upped Cheney in Salon.com: The “world is at a crisis point the likes of which we’ve never really seen.” Like the 1848 European revolutions. Hedges even warns liberals, “climate change is the least” of the world’s problems, don’t even think that “voting for Hillary will make any difference.”
Tell Trump the ISIS War will increase taxes, add trillions of new debt
Yes, folks, the GOP neo-con hawks are back at it again, want new wars ... liken Obama to Hitler ... fueling Cheney’s latest bout of extreme hubris ... arming another Bush effort to take over America a third time ... Cheney claims America is weaker today than at the start of his costly ill-fated Iraq War. He should endorse Trump, they both want a new superpower military ready to start new wars, fight revolutionaries, add big debt, run up casualties.
So here we go again. Be exceptional. By fighting bigger wars? Show China we’re more macho? All as the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Martin Dempsey is over in Iraq admitting this won’t be a short war, in contrast to Cheney’s claim we’d be in and out of Iraq fast after the shock-and-awe wave, even “greeted as liberators.”
Another $10 trillion loss, long recession dead ahead
Meanwhile, Dempsey admits the current ISIS war could take decades, with multiple deployments, bigger Pentagon budgets. On top of that, retired Navy Rear Admiral Len Hering warns that the risk to America’s national security is growing fast due to global climate change and rising resource conflicts, a product of the endless droughts and food shortages that intensify regional wars.
Yes, bigger wars, more costs. But unfortunately that’s “not a message the White House or Congress wants to hear,” says Foreign Policy’s Dan de Luce. Why? Politicians are lost without a moral compass, playing endless myopic political games, blind, in denial, threatening costly new wars that pile up more and more debt on top of the debt we were forced to borrow from China to finance Cheney’s Iraq War.
Perfect Storm: New president, Dow 5,000, recession, growth drops
All the recent turmoil is but a prelude to a “Perfect Storm” dead ahead: The recent 1,000 point drop ... slowing global economic growth... China’s market crash ... a Fed rate hike ... worst Dow volatility in 100 years ... the slow death of the oil era ... a long costly ISIS War ... droughts ... forest fires ... irrational climate science denialism ... and more.
And history tells us it doesn’t matter who’s elected president. Trump? Sanders? Hillary? Jeb? Doesn’t matter. Markets don’t care. Remember, McCain? Big crashes, recessions happen, about every eight years. Nobody really cares. Why? Once again we’re playing the game of musical chairs, gambling on the race for the 2016 White House.
And everyone’s playing: Everybody. We instinctively know the market’s headed for another fall. Again. Part of the game, right. In fact, knowing a big crash is coming makes the game more exciting, right! So we all just keep playing for another point, praying we can time our exit just before the coming collapse.
If 250% isn’t enough ... keep playing the game ... but play defense
Yes, the market is up over 250% since 2009. Time to get out? Yes, except the Wall Street casinos keep stirring the pot, there’s more life in this bull. So we keep playing for more gains, more thrills, in the race to the 2016 peak.
How big a crash? Twenty percent? Grantham’s 50%? Lose $8 trillion like 2000? Lose another $10 trillion like 2008? Seems nobody really cares anymore. Today’s game of musical chairs reminds us of that fabulous upbeat bank CEO in our favorite Robert Mankoff New Yorker cartoon who is sounding like Trump:
The CEO is at a podium motivating shareholders: “While the end-of-the-world scenario will be rife with unimaginable horrors, we believe that the pre-end period will be filled with unprecedented opportunities for profit.”
And that is the answer to Zuckerman’s question: “Who will get this Dreary Recovery going?” Answer: Nobody. Why? The question was rhetorical, he gave us the answer: “Recessions occur about every eight years. And America is ill-prepared to weather the one on the horizon.”
Yes, another recession is “on the horizon.” Also another $10 trillion crash. And another painful GOP loss in the 2016 elections.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/100-risk-of-a-50-stock-crash-if-donald-trump-wins-nomination-2015-09-04?link=kiosk