Sunday, 22 February 2015

STOCK-MARKET TRADERS--“A WINNING EDGE” PSYCHOLOGY

STOCK-MARKET TRADERS--
DEVELOP “A WINNING EDGE” PSYCHOLOGY
Stock Trading demands fundamental understanding of the stock valuations, future prospects and never the less stock behaviour relates to news and corporate developments. Stock market Traders shall have the necessary financial back-up, right associations to understand the movements with precision & care, more over traders shall develop psychologically matured, emotionally balanced, analytically strong mind and disciplined in judgement which we often find HARD with the amateur traders. 
Afresh blood of INVESTOR community come to markets on regular basis, and many novice investors get converted to Day-Traders for early-quick bucks, more than that a KICK and Excitement. The amateur Traders, think trading is an easy job, get trapped in the psychological compulsive state, loose control of rational thinking and suffer losses due to lack of understanding about the market operations. The stock-market play is always a two way game. But most traders believe just a BUY&SELL.  These Traders seldom recognise the basic fact that every BUY from their end is corroborated by some others SELL side position and vice-versa. 
Most of the times, the Day traders believe as if they are making a winning trade as small profits are reflected in their positions due to the market fluctuations. In fact, the day traders fail to understand the actual Trend, because the small moves are perceived as TREND and more positions built over that, as if right. The move to eliminate day traders/jobs shall never be taken as granted as TREND, whereas seasoned market makers/market operators generate such a false swing move to eliminate the amateur weak traders in the opposite direction of the main trend to see the stop-loss orders get triggered. Trends sustain for longer period usually than the fluctuations. The fluctuations of PUSH & PULL due to the urge to garner VOLUME, market operators generate a minor move in the direction of TREND or against. This happens normally when stocks in a Trading Zone, with well-defined boundaries. 
No doubt, traders are the volume creators, provide DEPTH to the markets. The amateur traders who are hyper active in their decision are making process seldom find time to cross check the rationale, enters the market to create a position on the buy side or on the sell side, and get struck to that thought process. These Traders tend to behave erratically, because initiated some positions, don’t hesitate to add more even if the position is at loss, and presume that averaging can turn the table. The similar behavioural pattern compels these traders to go for wild coverings that force to accept huge losses. Many a times, hear the complaining sympathy seeking statements like “when my positions are cleared/stoploss hit, the markets took a U-turn”. 
Day Traders enjoy the ecstasy, get involved in the PROFIT-LOSS drama of excitement that keeps tense mental state, and fail to evaluate the strength of winning trades. Similarly when losing. Either, Greed for Profits and FEAR of Loss generate impulsive heartbeat, turbulent emotions encircle the traders mind, generate confusion while making a judicious decision making, and end up in frustration.
Traders has to accept the very fact that, they have to understand the behaviour of the stock market moves but not the Markets. A seasoned trader can easily identify these moves and their nature strength, can generate good profits, whereas the amateurs be they Traders or Investors, always emotionally take a decision and challenges themselves to prove their ability to take right decisions,  prefers to Buy at the Top edge and Sell at the Bottom. The problems with these Compulsive, emotionally imbalanced traders is that they DEMAND the TREND, always look at the markets with an influenced mind set, thinking as if they are insurmountable and a pre-defined blind approach. Here, I am suggesting to understand the difference between a PLANNED & STRATEGIC APPROACH and a pre-determined adamant approach. 

In my next article, will try to analyse the PILLARS of Stock Markets…

Friday, 20 February 2015

EICHER MOTORS...ENFIELD SUCCESS...FULLY...!!!

Enfield & recovery in CVs to drive profit

Street willing to give premium valuations, based on strong catalysts such as robust volumes
Malini Bhupta  |  Mumbai  
 Last Updated at 22:26 IST
Investors tend to be forgiving towards an occasional miss in quarterly performance if the company has a strong franchise. This same is true for Eicher Motors, which disappointed in the December 2014 quarter by reporting below-consensus margins and net profit. The market remains optimistic on the stock, thanks to the strong franchise of Royal Enfield. In the December quarter, the firm’s net profit grew 60 per cent year-on-year to Rs 154 crore but on a sequential basis, it fell seven per cent. The performance is below the Street's estimates.

The reason for the disappointment was largely higher marketing and research & development expenses, which should normalise. The consolidated operating margin improved 330 basis points to 13.2 per cent. The standalone margin at 23.6 per cent disappointed the Street as it was down 140 points sequentially. Analysts believe the company has chosen to front-load a lot of expenses during the quarter but the numbers would improve.
There are several triggers  pushing analysts to increase the potential target price of the stock in 2015. For starters, consumers are clearly showing a shift towards leisure motorcycles and is not showing any sign of a volume slowdown. Though the leisure motorcycle category currently accounts for only two per cent of the total motorcycles sold in India, it is growing very fast. Nomura is projecting a 43 per cent volume CAGR in Royal Enfield volumes over FY14-17, led by an order backlog of five months and expansion into new tier-2 and tier-3 cites. Besides, the company is looking at capacity addition by mid-2015 and 2016, which would take overall capacity up by 60,000 units a month. JM Financial says the company is targeting volumes of 450,000 in 2015.

With new capacity in place, the company will address demand creation and boosting volumes. Eicher is looking at launching a new retail format across all Royal Enfield outlets and increasing number of dealerships to 500 by the end of 2015. The company is also setting up two R&D centres - in Chennai and the UK - to extend the product range.

ICICI Securities expects the company to track Harley Davidson's high growth phase in the coming years. Other than Royal Enfield, the company is also poised to capitalise on the recovery in commercial vehicles through the joint venture with Volvo. The company has not only extended the product range in the light and medium segment, but also in the heavy segment. The Volvo Eicher CV has increased market share in medium and heavy commercial vehicles segment to 12 per cent in FY14 from nine per cent in FY09.

Based on strong catalysts such as strong volumes for Royal Enfield and margin recovery in VE Commercial Vehicles, Nomura has arrived at a target price of Rs 19,915 a share, indicating a 22 per cent upside.

http://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/eicher-motors-strong-demand-for-royal-enfield-recovery-in-cvs-to-drive-profit-115022001029_1.html

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Wednesday, 24 December 2014

MIND BOGGLING YET…

MIND BOGGLING YET…

I WAS AMAZED TO SEE THE PRICE ROCKETED TO CREATE ENOUGH TURBULENCE IN ME.

I BOUGHT 1000 SHARES OF THERMAX FOR Rs 38.65, 15 YEARS BACK,

TODAY, THE PRICE OF THERMAX IS Rs 1050/- OF Rs 2/- FACE VALUE (EQUAL TO Rs 5150/-). IN OTHER WORDS, ONE LAKH INVESTED HAS BECOME MORE THAN 66 LAKHS.
EVEN RECENTLY, 2-3 YEARS BACK, I FOUND MARKSAN AT Rs 2.30 NOW IT IS QUOTING Rs 64/-.

ALSO FOUND MORARJEE TEXTILES AT Rs 7.0 NOW TOUCHED A HIGH OF Rs 61, INDOCOUNT INDUSTRIES AT Rs 7.0 NOW TOUCHED A HIGH OF Rs 390/-.

BUT THE ABOVE THREE WERE JUST MEMORIES BUT NO PARTICIPATION……

==============================================

MERRY CHRISTMAS TO YOU AND ALL INVESTORS & TRADERS…

Sunday, 14 December 2014

The weak WEEK-ended..GLOBAL MOVES...

The weak WEEK-ended.

As I have mentioned in my twitter postings,(@BNRSTOCKS), the Nifty could crawl from a low of 8198 on 31 October to a high of 8627 on 4th of December took nearly 23 trading days, whereas BEARs could pressurize the bulls to unwind their positions so fast that the low of 8216 came in just 6 trading days. The fall is definitely entice the fence siting investors to jump in to enter the equities and definitely a good opportunity, either. The run-up made so far will keep the Bulls to check whether they are in a rush to make a fresh “All-time HIGHs”.

As we see the trends, this fall is mainly due to the Cyclical & commodity stocks fall due to lack of consumer demand and low infrastructure progress. The stocks holding head above the troubled waters are motors and ancillary stocks. The good results of Pharma coupled with weak Rupee keeping them stay above their monthly gains. The Nifty may not cross 8450 level in a hurry but the broad range will be 7850-8500 in months to come, at least till Budget. The huge fall in Reliance, ONGC, GAIL, BPCL, NMDC,SSLT are good trading bets for HNIs for quick money.

The bank Nifty which is relatively very strong may see some unwinding in days to come as the credit off-take is contracting, will see 17300-17100 level, from where it will definitely cross the resistance at 18480-520 resistance to make new highs, as the RATE-CUT, now is immense pressure building on RBI.

The best stocks to hold like YES, ICICI, Canara Bank, Bank of India, SKS and Relcapital, in banking & Financials space. The steel segment will offer good returns in long-term as the promise is un-folding for huge infra-structure building and SMART CITIES.
Safe and secure Investments can be made with more confidence in counters like SCI, NALCO and India cements. Though the trouble are there to these counters but they are opportunities for long-term investors.
The Baltic freight index which moved from 720 level to 1450 from July to November, fell again to 850 levels during this week forced companies like Shipping Corporation shed 15% in value.


Though “No Proofs” Available-“The Fall of Crude Oil”- Very geopolitical issues, “under the carpet moves” made to cripple the Russia’s economy on all fronts, with a simple move a steep fall of Oil price & Russian Rubble fell against all currencies. The efforts to de-stabilize the sovereigns is a conglomerated action at very high level. Russia earlier banned the food products from EU, pushed to corner, now a simple retaliation. Rest everything is self-explanatory….

It is very difficult to understand and expect even local moves….like…

One day a news came that Govt of India is likely to ban the sale of LOOSE CIGARETTES, the result ---ITC fell more than 5%, from 376 to 348 level, on the very next day Govt. made a U-turn, changed the proposed decision, all those who made SHORTS got trapped, now ITC ruling at 395-400 range, a simple 15% rise. Now technically, even if ITC fell back to 300 doesn’t make much difference, the yearly HIGH-LOW, 400.3-310.35……who can explain why and who made these PROPOSED DECISIONS AND U-TURN ON THE NEXT DAY…ANY EXPLANATION FROM ANY-BODY…!!!!!!
....SOME CAN GIVE RATIONALE/EXPLANATIONS…BUT IT IS ALWAYS….RETAIL INVESTORS..LOSE THE MOST…..!!!!! NO EXPLANATION WHY..????


But again (Un-fortunately), we go by the technical charts and balance sheets to determine the price movements,….Rest everything is self-explanatory……………..

Sunday, 26 October 2014

Black money in India

Black money in India: HSBC list has 628 names, top amount $18 mn

Appu Esthose Suresh | New Delhi | Updated: Oct 26 2014, 13:47 IST

Only about a fifth of the individuals or entities named in the so-called HSBC black money list on India of alleged foreign account holders have acknowledged their ownership of the accounts. These individuals or entities — 136 in number — have either paid, or are in the process of paying, penalties for concealing incomes.
The HSBC black money list contains names and holdings of individuals or entities with accounts in the Geneva branch of HSBC's Swiss subsidiary HSBC Private Bank. The information was stolen from the bank by a former employee on a particular day in 2006. The list was given to India by France in June 2011.
According to documents accessed by The Indian Express, the HSBC list contains names of 628 Indian individuals or entities. The Income Tax Department has so far found matches between names and addresses in 418 cases. In 282 of these cases, however, either the account number or the balance in the account is not available.
In general, the list contains four sets of information: name, address, account number and balance.
Of the 136 individuals or entities who have acknowledged the accounts, many have pleaded that they were not aware of their existence, but would pay the tax and penalty due, senior I-T officers involved in the investigation said. Many of these 136 accounts show zero balance.
The addresses against 12 of the 418 names in the list belong to Kolkata. However, only six have confirmed that the account belongs to them.
The highest amount in the list is $ 18 million, allegedly belonging to two top industrialists.
The most common surnames on the list are Mehta and Patel.
French authorities had secured the list from software technologist Hervé Falciani, who has been collaborating with several European countries tracking suspected tax evaders with accounts in Swiss banks. The list contains alleged account data on the date Falciani procured them.
The Indian Express was the first to report in August 2011 that the French had handed over to India the list of HSBC account holders of Indian origin. The government is in the process of sending a list of 50 names from the 136 to Swiss authorities to confirm the authenticity of the information.
http://www.financialexpress.com/news/black-money-in-india-hsbc-list-has-628-names-top-amount-18-mn/1301633

Thursday, 7 August 2014

HISTORY REPEATS..JUST DO WAIT...!!!

I MISSED MY NIGHT SLEEP (IN 1991-95, I USED TO STUDY THE HARD COPIES OF CAPITAL MARKETS AND DALAL STREET…UPTO 3 AM,ONE DAY UPTO 5 AM…., NOW  SIMILAR SLEEPLESS STUDY…, I NEVER STUDIED MY CLASS BOOKS LIKE THIS…) DUE TO A SERIOUS SEACH FOR TINY STOCKS THAT CAN FETCH 500-1000% RISE IN FUTURE. THE SEARCH AND RESEARCH IS ON………… THE STORY OF MULTIBAGGERS IS A EVER RISING NOVEL STORY IN STOCK MARKETS…ONLY THING WE NEED TO DO IS JUST TRUST WHAT YOU THOUGHT IS RIGHT AND BELIEVE IN WHAT YOU IDENTIFIED/STUDIED……..…….

A SATISFACTION BUILT DISAPPOINTMENT OF MISSING INDOCOUNT INDUSTRIES WHICH I IDENTIFIED AT 7-9 NOW AT 144 A 18 MONTH HOLDING PERIOD, A 1500-2000% RETURN IS A PHENOMENAL CASE TO “BLOW ONE’S OWN TRUMPET”.
AT A SIMILAR TIME FRAME IDENTIFIED MORARJEE TEXTILE AT SAME 7-8 RUPEES NOW AT 44. I IDENTIFIED PHARMA AT 3 NOW AT 35 A 10 TIMES RISE..NOT ENJOYED…

SIMILARLY FINDING AND  I ENJOYED 700% RISE IN KM SUGAR BOUGHT AT 1 AND 1.35, NO OTHE SUGAR STOCK GAVE SUCH PHENOMENAL RETURN. I DOUBLED MONEY IN RANA SUGARS.

I BOUGHT BIRLA ERICSSON AT 10-12, NOW AT 65 LEVELS, SUGGESTED ALL TELECOM OPTIC FIBRE CABLE COMPANIES, WHICH GAVE 300 TO 500% RISE, WITH SOME CLOSE FRIENDS, I EVEN FOUGHT FOR THEIR INVESTMENTS IN THESE STOCKS.

AS A MATTER OF FACT, THIS RALLY HAVE GIVEN LIFE TO MANY TINY STOCKS, DORMANT FOR YEARS. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE MANY STOCKS THAT ARE AT THE SAME PRICE OR EVEN LOWER THAN TWO YEARS AGO.
SO, JUST TURN AROUND STORY, LIKE ARVIND AT 44 FOUR YEARS AGO NOW AT 240, PARTICIPATED BUT NO GREAT WAITING….
……….
THE LESSON IS SO SIMPLE THAT FIND OUT…KEEP ON INVESTING……SIT TIGHT WITH OUT DISTURBING THE HOLDING AT LEAST FOR 5-10 TIMES RISE.
………
FOR DAY TRADING..ALWAYS LIVE IN THE CURRENT TREND....